Madden Monday: Not That Optimistic About Steelers’ Chances to Upset Houston
Hey football fans! It’s Monday, January 13, 2026, and the buzz is all about tonight’s big AFC Wild Card playoff game. The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football at Acrisure Stadium. This matchup wraps up the wild card round, and many eyes are on whether the Steelers can pull off a surprise win against a hot Houston team.
The title “Madden Monday” often points to expert takes or simulations, like those from sports commentator Mark Madden. In recent discussions, there’s a clear vibe: not much hope for Pittsburgh to upset Houston. The Texans look strong, and the Steelers face tough odds. Let’s break it down in simple terms – why the optimism is low, what the teams bring, key players, and what might happen tonight.
First, the basics of the game. The Steelers finished the regular season at 10-7 and won the AFC North division. They needed some luck in the final week – a missed field goal by Baltimore’s kicker helped them clinch the spot. Aaron Rodgers is at quarterback, back in action and looking sharp in spots. The team got a boost with wide receiver DK Metcalf returning from suspension. Their defense, led by stars like T.J. Watt, is tough and reliable.
On the other side, the Houston Texans went 12-5, grabbed the No. 5 seed, and ended the year on fire with nine straight wins. That’s huge momentum heading into the playoffs. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has been solid, throwing for over 3,000 yards with good decision-making. Their defense is the real star – ranked No. 1 in many key areas, like points allowed and yards given up. Players like Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter rush the passer hard, while the secondary shuts down big plays.
Betting lines show Houston as a 3-point favorite on the road. The total points line sits around 38.5, suggesting a low-scoring battle. Many experts lean toward the Texans covering the spread or winning outright. One simulation from Madden NFL games had Houston edging out a close win, like 19-17, with field goals deciding it. Real-life models running thousands of sims give Houston about a 54% chance or more to advance.
Why so little optimism for a Steelers upset? It starts with Houston’s defense. It’s ferocious and ranks at the top in stopping offenses. The Steelers’ offense has struggled at times this year. Rodgers gets the ball out fast – sometimes too fast – with quick throws to avoid sacks. But against Houston’s edge rushers, that quick release might not be enough. The pocket collapses fast, and Pittsburgh has had protection issues all season.
The Texans’ defense forces mistakes and limits big gains. Pittsburgh likes to run the ball with backs like Jaylen Warren, but Houston holds up well against the run in key moments. On the flip side, Houston’s offense isn’t always explosive. They rank lower in some offensive stats, relying on field goals and defense to win games. But in their winning streak, they beat strong teams like the Bills and Chargers. That shows they can handle pressure.
Pittsburgh has its strengths. Playing at home on Monday night is special – they’ve had a long winning streak in those games historically. The crowd will be loud and cold weather might help the home team. Rodgers can still make magic throws, especially with Metcalf back for deep shots. The Steelers’ defense can pressure Stroud and force turnovers. If they get off to a good start and control the clock, an upset isn’t impossible.
But the concerns pile up. Pittsburgh has lost six straight playoff games, a long drought without a postseason win. Houston is playing its best ball right now, while the Steelers scraped into the playoffs. Experts point out that Rodgers might struggle against Houston’s pass rush. One take highlighted how the quick pocket time for Rodgers could lead to rushed throws and mistakes. The Steelers’ offense might get bottled up, leading to low scoring.
Fans and analysts aren’t super hopeful. Comments like “not that optimistic” capture the mood – there’s a glimmer of hope because it’s the playoffs and anything can happen, but the edge goes to Houston. The Texans have the better overall team on paper, especially on defense. Pittsburgh needs perfect execution, turnovers in their favor, and maybe some special teams help to pull it off.
What to watch for tonight:
Can the Steelers’ offensive line protect Rodgers long enough for big plays?
Will Houston’s run defense stop Pittsburgh’s ground game?
How does Stroud handle the cold and road pressure?
Turnovers – both teams play smart with the ball, but one mistake could swing it.
The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET. It’s on ESPN and ABC, so tune in for the action. Whether you’re rooting for the black and gold or the Texans, this should be a gritty, defensive battle.
In the end, while the Steelers have heart and home-field pride, the path to an upset looks steep. Houston’s defense and momentum make them the favorite for a reason. But playoffs are wild – one big play or lucky bounce changes everything. Enjoy the game, and let’s see if Pittsburgh can surprise us all!
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